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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

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