🔗 Share this article

Ouch. On one hand, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought tens of thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "president of negotiations", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the best chance possible to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.